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Worried the Housing Market Might Crash? Here's What You Really Need to Know

Worried the Housing Market Might Crash? Here's What You Really Need to Know

Worried the Housing Market Might Crash? Here's What You Really Need to Know

If you’ve found yourself wondering, “Is the housing market about to crash?” — you’re not alone. With headlines flying around and social media full of doomsday predictions, it’s easy to feel uncertain about what’s really going on.

According to a recent Clever Real Estate survey, 70% of Americans are worried about a housing crash in 2025. But as a local real estate team who has lived through a lot of market shifts, we want to offer some clarity and context based on both national insights and what we’re seeing here in Franklin County.

Inspired by a recent post from our friends at Keeping Current Matters (you can read their full article here), we want to break down why a crash isn’t likely — and what that means for you as a buyer or seller.


🔍 What’s Actually Happening in the Market?

The short answer: the market isn’t crashing, it’s normalizing.

After a few years of fast-paced appreciation and low inventory, we’re starting to see a shift toward a more balanced and healthier housing environment. That means:

  • Inventory is growing, but we’re still far from what’s considered “normal.”

  • Prices are still increasing, just not at the intense speed we saw in 2021 or 2022.

  • Buyer demand is strong, but rising rates and affordability are causing more intentional moves.

As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, puts it:

“There’s just generally not enough supply. There are more people than housing inventory. It’s Econ 101.”

And it’s true — even with more homes hitting the market, we’re still well below the inventory levels we need to create a buyer’s market or see prices fall.


🏡 What This Means for Franklin County (and Our Neighbors)

Locally, we are seeing this same trend play out.

While more homes are coming on the market this spring, the buyer demand — especially from move-up buyers, millennials seeking more space, and those relocating within our area — is keeping prices competitive.

That said, we’re also seeing sellers become more realistic with pricing and buyers gaining a little more time and choice than in years past. In our opinion, this is a good thing for both sides. It allows for more thoughtful decisions and smoother transactions.

And according to Freddie Mac, this more moderate pace of appreciation is expected to continue:

“In 2025, we expect the pace of house price appreciation to moderate from the levels seen in 2024, while still maintaining a positive trajectory.”


💬 So... Should You Wait?

If you're thinking about buying or selling, here’s our advice:

  • Don’t let fear hold you back. The market is adjusting — not collapsing.

  • Every market is local. National trends are helpful, but what matters most is what’s happening here in your community.

  • There’s opportunity in this shift. Whether you’re upsizing, downsizing, or just planning ahead, we’re here to help you make the most of it.


Let’s Talk

If you’re wondering what this all means for your specific situation, let’s connect. We’ll walk through the numbers, talk strategy, and make sure you’re informed and empowered to make the best decision for you and your family.

The market may be shifting — but your goals are still within reach.

 

Read the full Keeping Current Matters article here

 

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Tamithy Howrigan Real Estate is a team of experienced, licensed real estate agents serving the Franklin, Chittenden, Grand Isle, Lamoille Counties, VT metro area. With a proven track record of getting results quickly and a direct line of communication at all times.  
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